Future Predictions [Economy & Population]
Postări: 30
Vizitat de: 58 users
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Just leaving this here to check and compare in 2031: United States (GDP nominal / Per Capita / Population / military budget) (aproximate rough numbers) 2020: $20 trillion / $60,000 / 330,000,000 / $700b 2030: $30 trillion / $85,000 / 350,000,000 / $1,100b 2050: $50 trillion / $125,000 / 400,000,000 / $2 trillion China 2020: $14 trillion / $10,000 / 1,450,000,000 / $200b 2030: $30 trillion / $20,000 / 1,500,000,000 / $600b 2050: $50 trillion / $35,000 / 1,400,000,000 / $1 trillion Russia 2020: $1.5 trillion / $10,000 / 145,000,000 / $60b 2030: $2 trillion / $15,000 / 145,000,000 / $80b 2050: $4 trillion / $30,000 / 140,000,000 / $160b If this (2000-2020) trend continues, USA will fall to 2# spot, will keep its superpower status at the cost of social development. China will become 1# and obtain superpower status. Russia will fall to 3# rank and lose superpower status, downgrading to great power, unless some new tech or resource discovery give Russia a geopolitical leverage, or the economy experience a miracle, which is very unlikely.
---- If a game is around long enough, people will find the most efficient way to play it and start playing it like robots
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1250.000 $ i suppose u mean $125.000 Is this your own assesment or do you have a source. Also is it your own opinion about china becoming a superpower while having 4 times less gdp per capita. Is it your own opinion that russia is a superpower right now, or can you provide proof if its not just your own opinion. Also is this about 2030? Or 2050? China a superpower in 2030? Lol. Russia a superpower right now? LOL. Its widely accepted that the only superpower since the end of USSR, is The US. No other country can challenge it. Last comment: please explain the definition of superpower, since i dont think you know the meaning.
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My predictions: United States (GDP nominal / Per Capita / Population / military budget) (aproximate rough numbers) 2020: $20 trillion / $60,000 / 330,000,000 / $700b 2030: $30 trillion / $85,000 / 350,000,000 / $1,100b 2050: $50 trillion / $1250,000 / 400,000,000 / $75 trillion China 2020: $14 trillion / $10,000 / 1,450,000,000 / $200b 2030: $10 trillion / $20,000 / 1,500,000,000 / $600b 2050: $0.1 trillion / $35,000 / 1,400,000,000 / $1 trillion Russia 2020: $1.5 trillion / $10,000 / 145,000,000 / $60b 2030: $5 trillion / $15,000 / 145,000,000 / $80b 2050: $75 trillion / $30,000 / 140,000,000,000 / $160,000b Russia will become the world's largest economy because of the melting ice caps
---- Happiness = reality - expectations
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It is my opinion based on US-Russia-China observation from 2000 to 2020. Russia didn't lose superpower status, it is losing the status, but for now, still owning it. Many things are 'widely accepted', a minor democracy fault, but tolerable. Doesn't mean it's true. Russia have the largest nuclear stockpile, largest territory, developed national institutions, veto in UN, excels at diplomacy, espionage and military, owns the largest resource reserves on the planet ($75 trillion), 25% of planetary fresh water and 50% of the forests (though coniferous). China is either 2nd, 3rd or 4th largest nation on earth (i remember USA, Canada and China all stand at 9.5 million km^2, no need to check because i'll miss few kilometers), with largest population, and currently number one or number two trading partner of all nations on this planet. They have veto in UN and warm water ports. This doesn't only qualify China for SP status, but proves they are on the doorstep. China is also 90% Han, while Russia is 80% Russian and USA is 60% white and decreasing. Muslims in Russia make more children than Russians (above 2 TFR), while Black and Mexicans have more children than White in the US + mostly non White immigration. This did and will cause social problems for Russia and USA while Han-dominated China will experience stability. This is important factor in Geopolitics as it is easy to divide and conquer. You can split a nation but you can't split an ethnic group, check Disolution of USSR, Yugoslav Civil War and BLM for more information how people choose team. George Friedman said USA will experience social problems in 2100 due to racial transformation of the country, but in my opinion the problems will begin in 2050 due to that year being the first where white americans will fall to 49%. For example, USSR collapsed when Russians fell to 50%.
---- If a game is around long enough, people will find the most efficient way to play it and start playing it like robots
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USA 2020: $20 trillion / $60,000 / 330,000,000 / $700b 2030: whole bitcoin / 20k and 30 milion of protocoins 2050: half bitcoin / 40 k / 100 milions of nerocoins China 2020: $14 trillion / $10,000 / 1,450,000,000 / $200b 2030: who care / 5 000 / nothing 2050: 2 copy of btc / 10k / one hacker on nepal Russia 2020: $1.5 trillion / $10,000 / 145,000,000 / $60b 2030: 10 bearcoins / 3 milions / 20k bearcoins 2050: 1000 bearcoins / 5 milions / 20k of bearcoins
----  http://atwar-game.com/forum/topic.php?topic_id=14714&topicsearch=&page= 
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What's the source and methodology on these projections?
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China was 2nd fourth etc largest country on earth in 1937, with largest population as well. Was it considered even a great power? And in the 60s-70s they got their veto right, were they then considered a superpower because of that? NO. First try and learn the definition of superpower: https://prnt.sc/xtxsmz A superpower is a state with a dominant position characterized by its extensive ability to exert influence or project power on a global scale. This is done through the combined means of economic, military, technological and cultural strength as well as diplomatic and soft power influence. Traditionally, superpowers are preeminent among the great powers. Now going by this definition, how the fuck do you qualify russia as a superpower? Russian economic might is just mehh. In 2006 they let Kosovo, be independent, (Serbia a russian ally). Their soft power lacks in like 50% of the world. Can they influence China? India? Europe? Nope. Even culturally, Russian might is declining. In Soviet times, russian was learned by many people accros the communist world. Eastern Europe, Central asia, russian was a school language, now its not. Sure their military capabilities have risen since putin came to power, sure they have stockpiled a lot of nukes. This is the reason they are a great power, if they however had USA like soft power, USA like cultural, economic power then yes they could be on par with USA. But they dont, their military budget is nothing compared to the US, they dont have accross all the world military bases, last time i checked nobody really want rubles, but dollars.... Now youre argument about ethnic groups, the problem here is that its flawed af because of American history. America is build on migration. Hence, you can be American- irish, American- Italian and it wont matter. They consider you american nevertheless. Whereas in many other countries such as russia. Youre not russian first. Even Europe has this problem. Secondly, Russian ethnic problems are because of history. On what historic grounds can latinos say that florida or some part of USA has always been latino? Or black? They cant, cuz america is built on migration. Yugoslav and or russia are built on nations who existed before. Hence, these nation will want self-determination. Also migration is a good thing for the economy.... just ask japan how their economy is doing without the migration. (Stagnant af). China doesnt need migration, because well they have 1.3 billion people. There are many cases where the dominant ethnic group is a minority within an empire. And it lasts many hundred years. The difference between those empires and USA is that USA is treating its minorities better and better by the year. While Russia and China, well go live there as a minority and experience it yourself. If Russia would be a superpower right now, then why the fuck do i see so many russians migrating because of economics? In my opinion, you just disqualified yourself from having any political knowledge.
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Its his own opinion. Nothing based on real facts or real world geopolitical arguments.
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Nobody: Witch-Doctor after he sees people acknowledge that America is the only superpower: 
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Please explain the definition of "condescending" , since you don't seem to know how to speak any other way.
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hes right
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having or showing an attitude of patronizing superiority. Now explain to me how i am feeling superior if i genuinely believe he doesnt know the meaning of a superpower. And now since i havent interacted with you, explain to me how you came with this. Since i believe the term believing your above and more than anyone else is you. Since you dont know me, yet you say i dont know how to speak to anyone in any other way. Yet i think, being a owner of such a game, you show little to no respect and think that youre the superior here. It would have adorn you if you as owner of such a game wouldnt be acting in such a way. Very un- businessmen like. Furthermore, if you want to silence or ban/ mute someone just say that. Dont act so hypocritical. Or are you trying to be the funny guy again.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_GDP_(nominal)#Long_term_GDP_estimates https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_past_and_projected_future_population#Estimates_between_the_years_2020_and_2050_(in_thousands) And my opinion based on 2000-2020 geopolitical observation.
---- If a game is around long enough, people will find the most efficient way to play it and start playing it like robots
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- andartes 2021: russia is a superpower Andartes 2016 vs andartes 2021 supreme troll achievement accomplished Russian gdp per capita on par with countries like panama.
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I see you talking down to people all the time on here. The funny part is that you're completely oblivious about it. This isn't about me. I'm not superior to anyone just for pointing out the obvious. Anyway I'm not talking in an "official" capacity, so you can relax. I didn't threaten to mute/ban you. I'm just talking as a private citizen. By all means, keep insulting other people's intelligence just because you disagree with them. I'm sure you'll win over many hearts and minds that way 
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If you wanna do it like this sure. Youre entitled to point out the obvious but im not? Now whos condescending here. I dont see any of your arguments, furthermore i didnt see you when someone was being a racist or worse. But sure to everyone its own taste. Your explanation is: i see you doing it all the time Id call that just a weak argument. Tell me where i insulted andartes his intelligence? Was it because i think he disqualified himself from having political knowledge, because of him thinking russia is a superpower. Now tell how that affects his intelligence. I think he sure is an intelligent person, just doesnt have enough knowledge about some things, like russia being not a superpower. Straight up, cherry-picking when to point out the obvious is kinda your thing now. If you brought in any arguments into the discussion, your words would have had some value. But now it just seems to me, you hate left- wing people and try to chery-pick the subjects and well point out the obvious. And oh yeah, as if banning like this hasnt happened before. So you can act all cool, but we both now youre hypocritical.
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Debating gigi is like debating the wall...
---- RP is terrible, but NWE is the worst of all
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debating you is like debating someone without a high school degree, you keep forgetting your papers with arguments.
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Why then do we need NATO? if RUSSIA isn't a superpower RUSSIA > NATO kek
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Nice simulation, albeit its just for your entertainment and not based on real facts. NATO > Warshaw pact. After the collapse of the USSR many eastern european joined the NATO. In what universe would Russia alone stand a chance against NATO in both their current forms. So delusional. Why NATO is needed? Nato currently has 5 operations. Securing peace in Afghanistan Maintaining presence in Kosovo Monitoring Mediterrean against terrorism Combating piracy off the horn of Africa Providing assistance to African Union If you want to know more about NATO and its purpose nowadays read their strategic concept online of 2010. Heres the link: https://www.nato.int/nato_static/assets/pdf/pdf_publications/20120214_strategic-concept-2010-eng.pdf One of the reasons we havent gotten major wars after second world war, is that after ww2 they accelerated and formed many institutions which maintained an interconnectedness/ interdependence between countries. League of Nations failed, and they wanted new institutions that would secure peace. NATO was a defensive organization against the communist spread. But since that goal and purpose is no longer sufficient it got new goals and new purposes. And yes having an organization such as NATO maintains peace across the world. You dont see any NATO members warring another nato members now do you? Aside from Greek- Turkish tensions with their Cyprus conflicts no nato members would ever think of warring the other. And even with Turkey and Greece, dont you think that NATO leaders would do anything possible to prevent conflict. Also there is no gain from leaving nato or attacking another nato member.
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i'd rather debate someone without a high school degree then debate the wall, thanks..
---- RP is terrible, but NWE is the worst of all
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Maybe you just lack the capacity to convince. Start getting skilled in how to debate.
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Well its not fair to compare (european)NATO and Russia; Russia is a place where majority people are the same, same language religion, culture, history. NATO is a an alliance of countries, with different languages, culture, religion, history, they are not the same, or united. Russia have one army, one comunication-system, infrastructure, chain of command, NATO is composed of 25 chains of command, parallel officer corps, soldiers that speak different languages. If there is a war, nato won't last a week, their joint armies would collapse due to language barrier(no coms), and only success they'd have will be local defense, exactly where they share common language and people. And while all russians must fight if summoned, nato doesn't have to; italy, denmark, portugal can simply reject to send troops and will notify Russia that they will not participate, but will defend national borders. Russia can hunt down individuals for draft dodging, but NATO cant invade european nations for not sending troops to the eastern front. Many kingdoms have broken alliances in the past, thats nothing new. NATO can be effective only if led by USA, and i mean millions of troops. Millions of G.I. carrying europeans, and european nato having just few thousand troops, absorbed by the americans. That might work. P.S. F*ck Macedonia, they joined NATO 
---- If a game is around long enough, people will find the most efficient way to play it and start playing it like robots
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Doesnt matter NATO exists only on paper if there war we will send our corrupt politicians to fight for nato but our people will fight for Russia. NATO can be effective only if led by USA You are wrong xd They will send Transgender battalion against Russia???? what army will send west eu :gays ,lesbians ,atheist ,drug users,pc gamers ,youtubers???? or france will send army??? french foreign legion??? they cant beat shit countries like Iraq and Afghanistan who use old soviet weapons axaxxa how the fuck they will beat RUSSIA???? they forgot what happened in ww2??? you have seen RUSSIAN ARMY????????????????? who will stop them soyboys from west europe or america??? this people simple will die if they leave their army bases or homes they wont survive 1 day in eastern europe terrain kek
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No idea from where you get all this informations from Biden media????? Why NATO is needed? Nato currently has 5 operations. Securing peace in Afghanistan Maintaining presence in Kosovo Monitoring Mediterrean against terrorism Combating piracy off the horn of Africa Providing assistance to African Union this is joke right???? One of the reasons we havent gotten major wars after second world war, is that after ww2 they accelerated and formed many institutions which maintained an interconnectedness/ interdependence between countries. League of Nations failed, and they wanted new institutions that would secure peace. NATO was a defensive organization against the communist spread. But since that goal and purpose is no longer sufficient it got new goals and new purposes. axaxxaxaaxxaxaxa  fucking defensive organization NATO you blow my mind debating you is like debating someone without a high school degree, you keep forgetting your papers with arguments. 
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"NATO maintains peace across the world Nato currently has 5 operations. Securing peace in Afghanistan Maintaining presence in Kosovo Monitoring Mediterrean against terrorism Combating piracy off the horn of Africa Providing assistance to African Union NATO was a defensive organization against the communist spread" https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milica_Raki%C4%87 Milica Rakić (Serbian Cyrillic: Милица Ракић; 9 January 1996 - 17 April 1999) was a three-year-old Serbian girl who was killed by a cluster munition during the NATO bombing of Yugoslavia. shame shame shame shame i think this is enough for now you have no idea what war crimes nato has committed in the past NATO are pure evil
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Finally something you said thats full of logic
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I provided the sourced where i got this information. You can check yourself where nato does his operations right now. USA operations are not NATO operations. But NATO operations can be or are usa operations. I also explained why nato is needed, the last paragraph i tries to explain it with logic and 1 example of conflict within nato. I cant do more than that, if you dont understand or not willing to understand then dont. If youre gonna use arguments like, "from biden media". Then i guess its no point talking here.
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Who did the Srebrenica massacre? I think you have no idea what youre talking about. First start a massacre for greater serbia, then they scream for help and when international community finally moves to help and restore peace, blame everything on them and say theyre evil. Nice, next time just kill each other and dont ask for help.
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Well its been 70 years since WW2, lifestyle changed, nutrition, jobs, mentality :/ USA and RF cant field same armies, numbers and quality as in WW2. Back then they both had same number of population, today USA have x2 more, so that mean not only they can deploy x2 more troops, but also x2 more if you just handpick the most competent ones. There are still healthy males in central USA, sturdy farmers, raw factory workers. Millions of them. And you can't draft Moscow and Petersburg citizens, they are all liberals, but you can from Ural, Siberia, Caucasus. Russia will have 2 times smaller army - but easier to deploy, as USA have to cross 2 oceans. And just to add, no matter what CoD: MW portraits, world wars will be fought with infantry still. When destruction ensue, tanks, drones and special forces are destroyed first. Raw masses of infantry makes a difference. 90% of WW2 was fought by the infantry [source: YT channel TIK], because factories can't spam enough tanks and planes to replace the losses on the front. Infantry can. Enemy will not wait for you to replace losses, they will strike when you are unprepared.
---- If a game is around long enough, people will find the most efficient way to play it and start playing it like robots
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